Estimation of Zika virus prevalence by appearance of microcephaly
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There currently is a severe Zika Virus (ZIKV) epidemic in Brazil and other South American countries. Due to international travel, this poses severe public health risk of ZIKV importation to other countries. We estimate the prevalence of ZIKV in an import region by the time a microcephaly case is detected, since microcephaly is presently the most significant indication of ZIKV presence. A mathematical model to describe ZIKV spread from a source region to an import region was established. This model incorporates both vector transmission (between humans and mosquitoes) and sexual transmission (from males to females). Account was taken of population structure through a contact network for sexually active individuals. Parameter values of the model are either taken from the literature or estimated from travel data
BMC Infectious Diseases (2016) 16:754 DOI 10.1186/s12879-016-2076-z